Growth in OECD countries and elsewhere: how much do education and R&D explain?

We find that the Nonneman and Vanhoudt (1996) extension to include R&D in the Mankiw, Romer and Weil (1992) growth model with human capital performs well also outside of OECD countries. It explains 61 to 86 percent of cross-country variation in income and growth over 40 years, explanatory variables being of expected sign for all country groups and significant in most cases. We test for the role of adding control variables and excluding outliers.augmented Solow model

An analytical analysis of vesicle tumbling under a shear flow

Vesicles under a shear flow exhibit a tank-treading motion of their membrane, while their long axis points with an angle < 45 degrees with respect to the shear stress if the viscosity contrast between the interior and the exterior is not large enough. Above a certain viscosity contrast, the vesicle undergoes a tumbling bifurcation, a bifurcation which is known for red blood cells. We have recently presented the full numerical analysis of this transition. In this paper, we introduce an analytical model that has the advantage of being both simple enough and capturing the essential features found numerically. The model is based on general considerations and does not resort to the explicit computation of the full hydrodynamic field inside and outside the vesicle.Comment: 19 pages, 9 figures, to be published in Phys. Rev.

Homolytic Aromatic Substitution, Conformational Dynamics of Dihydrophenanthridines, and High-Throughput Synthesis of Amides with Fluorous Technology: Methodologies in Reaction, Analysis, and Separation

Homolytic aromatic substitution encompasses a wide range of synthetic transformations based on inter- and intramolecular additions of radicals to arenes. Additions of radicals derived from aryl iodides to arenes are promoted by tris(trimethylsilyl)silane and occur under exceptionally mild conditions in non-degassed benzene. Experimental observations led to a proposed mechanism involving reaction of the intermediate cyclohexadienyl radical with dioxygen to generate the aromatic product and the hydroperoxy radical. This methodology was extended to the synthesis of biaryl and heterocyclic compounds.N-Acetyldihydrophenanthridines exhibit remarkable conformational dynamics that are observable on the NMR timescale. Semiempirical calculations were performed to understand their conformational preferences. The predictions derived from the calculated structures were verified by x-ray crystallography, two-dimensional exchange and variable temperature NMR spectroscopy. The rate constants for conformational switching were calculated by a matrix-based routine with data extracted from the two-dimensional exchange spectra.A fluorous equivalent of diisopropylcarbodiimide (FDIC) was synthesized to overcome the separation problems encountered when conducting solution-phase, carbodiimide mediated acyl couplings. The reactivity of the fluorous analog was not greatly affected by the presence of a fluorous domain, and was equally as effective as diisopropylcarbodiimide in facilitating amide bond formation. Coupled with a reverse F-SPE strategy, FDIC mediated couplings were conducted to provide the target amides in high-purities (95-99%). A small library of amides was prepared in a high-throughput fashion to demonstrate the utility of this approach

How overconfident are current projections of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions?

Analyzing the risks of anthropogenic climate change requires sound probabilistic projections of CO2 emissions. Previous projections have broken important new ground, but many rely on out-of-range projections, are limited to the 21st century, or provide only implicit probabilistic information. Here we take a step towards resolving these problems by assimilating globally aggregated observations of population size, economic output, and CO2 emissions over the last three centuries into a simple economic model. We use this model to derive probabilistic projections of business-as-usual CO2 emissions to the year 2150. We demonstrate how the common practice to limit the calibration timescale to decades can result in biased and overconfident projections. The range of several CO2 emission scenarios (e.g., from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios) misses potentially important tails of our projected probability density function. Studies that have interpreted the range of CO2 emission scenarios as an approximation for the full forcing uncertainty may well be biased towards overconfident climate change projections.economics of climate change, scenarios, data assimilation

How Overconfident are Current Projections of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Emissions?

Analyzing the risks of anthropogenic climate change requires sound probabilistic projections of CO2 emissions. Previous projections have broken important new ground, but many rely on out-of-range projections, are limited to the 21st century, or provide only implicit probabilistic information. Here we take a step towards resolving these problems by assimilating globally aggregated observations of population size, economic output, and CO2 emissions over the last three centuries into a simple economic model. We use this model to derive probabilistic projections of business-as-usual CO2 emissions to the year 2150. We demonstrate how the common practice to limit the calibration timescale to decades can result in biased and overconfident projections. The range of several CO2 emission scenarios (e.g., from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios) misses potentially important tails of our projected probability density function. Studies that have interpreted the range of CO2 emission scenarios as an approximation for the full forcing uncertainty may well be biased towards overconfident climate change projections.Carbon Dioxide, Emissions, Scenarios, Data Assimilation, Markov Chain Monte Carlo